There are a number of premises in the town centre of Lanark in which one may place a bet. The bookie seems to be a stable presence on our High Street whilst the activity on online gambling is enormously popular. Both bookies and their clients deal in probabilities, or if you like ‘odds’. What, for example, are the chances that Shadowfax will come in first in the 3.40 at Chepstow? Is it simply a matter of consulting a form book, or getting local knowledge from the racecourse? Or, indeed, are there irreducible elements in the processes which lead to outcomes that can never be known? What indeed is the nature of probability?
There are subterranean dimensions to this question, and these are the subject of Hugh Mellor’s (http://www.phil.cam.ac.uk/people/teaching-research-pages/mellor/mellor-page) book. It introduces and explains the principal concepts and applications of probability. It is intended for those who want to understand probability as we all apply it in our working and everyday lives. It is not a course in mathematical probability, of which it uses only the simplest examples, and it avoids needless technicality. Mellor discusses the three basic kinds of probability – physical, epistemic, and subjective – and introduces and assesses the main theories and interpretations of them. The topics and concepts covered include: chance, frequency, possibility, propensity, credence, confirmation, and Bayesianism. The bookies of the town could soon be peopled by a highly educated and informed clientele. Oh, alright then – probably not.
Enquire at your local library or available at http://www.amazon.co.uk/Probability-Philosophical-Introduction-D-H-Mellor/dp/0415282500/ref=sr_1_1_twi_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1419067635&sr=8-1&keywords=mellor+probability
To read more of Mellor’s work follow links on his Cambridge page at http://people.ds.cam.ac.uk/dhm11/
For listening – go straight to the horse’s mouth and enjoy Hugh Mellor for 15 minutes at the philosophy bites link at http://philosophybites.com/2014/12/hugh-mellor-on-probability.html. Clarity will radiate from this discussion between Mellor and Nigel Warburton, in all probability.
Also as a warm up to this subject, listen to the Radio 4 ‘In Our Time’ episode (45 minutes) on probability available at http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00bqf61. With Marcus du Sautoy, Professor of Mathematics at Oxford; Colva Roney-Dougal, Lecturer in Pure Mathematics at St. Andrews; Ian Stewart, Professor of Mathematics at Warwick.
176 pages in Routledge
First published 8 February 2005
ISBN 978-0415282505
Hugh Mellor